On Thin Ice: Presidential Transition Turned Into Battle

On June 21, 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella won the Colombian presidency. On July 7, five days after the presidential transition team took office, De la Espriella suspended the process. The presidential inauguration took place on the constitutionally mandated date, but the new administration received fragmented information regarding resources, capabilities, and pending decisions. The earthquake on August 10, three days after the inauguration, highlighted the costs of that incomplete transition.

This is the third report in the "On Thin Ice" series. In this edition, we analyze the transition between Gustavo Petro and Abelardo de la Espriella, as well as the cost of the disruption in the Ministries of Finance, Defense, Health, Foreign Affairs, and National Planning. In addition, we identify the precedents and risks that this process sets for the 2027 regional transitions and the 2030 national transition.

On Thin Ice_Presidential Transition Turned Into Battle_Colombia Risk Analysis.pdf

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The Ministry of Finance (Petro Administration) is carrying out the transition without Abelardo de la Espriella's team.