On Thin Ice: The Relations Between Colombia and Venezuela
- Colombia Risk Analysis
- 16 hours ago
- 1 min read
Three major changes mark the relationship between Colombia and Venezuela. On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military attack against Venezuela and captured Nicolás Maduro, leading to an interim government headed by Delcy Rodríguez. On June 21, Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's presidency. On June 24, two earthquakes struck northern Venezuela and deepened the humanitarian emergency. These three events are redefining the ground on which Bogotá and Caracas will build their bilateral relationship.
This is the second report in the On Thin Ice series, which analyzes political relationships with the potential to alter institutional balance and regional stability. In this edition, we examine recent developments in the bilateral relationship, the United States' role as a shaping actor, and Venezuela's new political cycle under Delcy Rodríguez. We look at the issues that will define the agenda between both countries, including security, energy, trade, the business sector, migration, and international cooperation. We also outline scenarios for Venezuela and Colombia and identify risks, opportunities, and early signs of change to support decision-making by investors, diplomats, and other stakeholders interested in developments in both countries.
